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W2E - M2E w/gamification funding the following  estimation with a focus on downloads and steps:

Assumptions:

 * Steps per User: Each user takes 401,000 steps.
 * $wkm per 1000 Steps:  Users earn 120 $wkm for every 1000 steps.
 * $wkg Value: $wkg is worth twice as much as $wkm.
 * Average CPM:  $5 per 1000 ad impressions.
 * "Available" Clicks per User: Each user clicks the "Available" button (and sees an ad) 10 times a day.

Estimation:

 * $wkm per User:
   * Each user earns 401,000 steps / 1000 steps * 120 $wkm = 48,120 $wkm
 * $wkg per User:
   * Each user earns 48,120 $wkm * 2 ($wkg value) = 96,240 $wkg
 * Daily Ad Impressions per User:
   * Each user generates 10 "Available" clicks = 10 ad impressions.
 * Daily Ad Revenue per User:
   * 10 impressions / 1000 impressions * $5 CPM = $0.05
 * Required Downloads to Reach 401,000 $wkm

 Total:

   * Total $wkm / $wkm per user = 401,000 $wkm / 48,120 $wkm/user = approximately 8.33 users.
   * Since we can't have a fraction of a user, round up to 9 downloads.

 * Total $wkg Earned:

   * 9 users * 96,240 $wkg/user = 866,160 $wkg

Important Notes:

 * User Behavior: This estimation heavily relies on the assumption that each user consistently takes 401,000 steps and interacts with the ads. In reality, user behavior will vary significantly.

 * Retention: The estimation doesn't account for user retention. If users stop using the app before reaching 401,000 steps, the required downloads and $wkg earned will increase.

 * Advertising Revenue: The actual ad revenue will depend on various factors, including ad fill rates, click-through rates, and the types of ads displayed.

This revised estimation gives you a different perspective based on downloads and user activity. However, it's still crucial to remember that these are rough calculations based on several assumptions. To get a more accurate picture, you'll need real-world data on user behavior and advertising performance.

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